THINKING
Ideas for a more complex world.
Essays on judgement, conviction, uncertainty and the people behind investment decisions.
AI and the Wall of Worry
AI is lowering the cost of starting. Building a durable business still demands distribution, trust and execution.
Expectation is the new volatility
AI is compressing the distance between hypothesis and price. The challenge is telling lasting change from a louder narrative.
What Holds When Markets Don’t
Rigour and proximity belong together. Understanding what you own is what helps conviction hold under pressure.
How Conviction Travels
More information does not create conviction. Understanding has to travel from the investment professional to the client.
The feeling is a forecast
Emotion is already part of the decision. The work is learning to name it precisely and distinguish signal from fatigue.
What to take credit for
Outcomes owe much to the sea. Preparation, discipline and the depth of the lines are the parts we can choose.
Aim to be understood, not to look smart
Clarity is not a simplified version of the truth. It is the hard work of making an idea small enough to carry.
The most underpriced asset is patience
On patience, long horizons and the discipline of allowing good decisions time to work.
The discipline of not knowing
On uncertainty, intellectual humility and the discipline of making decisions without pretending to know the future.